Tuesday, November 24, 2009

On Strategy

World War I is, bare none, the most tragic war fought the last thousand years. Some say the war started in the 1870's era and ended on the eve before World War II. From a technology and strategy point of view, this is true. Nothing quite boosts human mental prowess more than a deep and enduring crisis; the war started with outdated ideas and technology and ended with all the concepts that were used to wage the second tragedy in the same century.

Take, for example, the approach on the battlefield -- long lines of young men, trodding slowly towards their doom. And even those who arrived at the other end of No Man's Land could not hold on. There were no supplies, no backup, no mates to back up their positions. Seldom was terrain conquered for long. Reconquests of trenches bought dearly with the blood of many were the norm.

The British did not innovate their fundamental tactics. Their society at that time was highly stratified with little room for initiative in the lower strata. On the other hand, and contrary to popular belief, Germany was almost the inverse; it had a strong middle class. It invented a concept that nearly blew the Allies away -- Stormtroopers. Soldiers with decentralized decision making authority, often by non-commanding officers (NCOs in jargon, ie those below officer level). The tactics were aimed at deep penetrating units, circumventing tough defenses. New weapons were added to the arsenal; flamethrowers and grenades. The units had a high degree of self-coordination and self-reliance, without overbearing staff interference up to the level that they did not, and indeed, could not, know about. The unit was very successful and mostly due to incompetence of the over-hyped general Ludendorff (suffering from a nerve breakdown after his failed Peace Offensive), was the advantage thrown out of the window and could the Allies win the war.

Strategy permeates everything we do, even though we may not be conscious about it. It is about how we deal with everyday aspects. What do you do if someone treats you unkindly? Will you put up a fight? Offer friendship? Walk away? Strategies are most often not designed. Indeed, they evolve. You try something; doesn't work? Toss it out and try something else.

The best examples are those seen in nature. Think about the arms race between prey and predator, or how parasites and influenza viruses keep on adjusting to outrun what medicine can throw against it. The relentless pressure of evolution is the best evolver of new strategies.

Nor is strategy a single thing. It often consists of a number of characteristics that strengthen a generic theme; in companies, these could consist of culture, processes, skills, technology. The best companies in the world have strategies that work. If you break those down, you will find many, many parts that all interrelate and enforce each other. Do not even bother cherry-picking; it's bound to fail, because you do not have the overall strategy.

It makes me think. Can a really good strategy actually be designed? Can it come into existence without the pressure to change? Can it evolve into the target strategy withouth the cultural preconditions being in place?

I think pressure is essential. And so is the holistic view. Without pressure, no one will feel the need to change and without that energy nothing will happen. Without the holistic view, all the measures are shrapnel shots going nowhere. It needs to be part of a bigger picture, the parts reinforcing the whole.

As for evolution or design; strategy suffers from the same problem as software development. Everyone accept nowadays that the waterfall model of software development does not work and smart people invented the concept of iterative development, which for sure works a lot better. So it is with strategy. I firmly believe that it is not possible to design a 100% sound strategy upfront. You use your instincts and experience to aim as good as you can and then evolve the concept as you go.

Culture might well be the hardest one. How do you know you are not shooting for an impossible target? The Will to Succeed may well be blind to impossibilities. Do you have the right people on board? Are you yourself the right person to pull this through?

Personally, I stick to these rules:

  • design and look at the big picture, see how it all interacts
  • know what not to do and block that out
  • relish a crisis; it offers the opportunity for change
  • don't be too harsh on yourself for not seeing the entire picture (yet)
  • be fair in appraising weaknesses
  • learn from others, read biographies of successful people


Despite an intensive, lifelong fascination for anything that has to do with strategy, I still cannot claim to have mastered the subject, though I do claim to derive a lot of intellectual pleasure just thinking about it.

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