Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Money for Nothing

Some 375 years ago, the Netherlands (then the United Provinces) just recovered from a bout of intensive fighting with the Spaniards. It had a lively trade, resulting in the Golden Era. This boosted the cash income for the upper class so much, that it desperately sought outlets, burning in the pockets of rich people. My fellow countrymen therefore developed an appetite for the beauty of the tulip; a rare item in limited supply. The insatiable appetite for exotic varieties turned into the first real economic bubble, as middle class speculators joined the fray and short selling (ie, gambling on price increases with borrowed money, effectively incurring double risk) was introduced. The history of this mania is described eloquently in the book Tulipomania.

The appeal of easy money has always been big. It is what any casino thrives on, and what makes Pyramid Schemes so successful in preying on the naive and gullible. Ratio is thrown out of the window in pursuit of the big fish and the fact that so many people join in only reinforces the herd mind that the mass is on to something.

Some of the appeals to people's lust for easy money is cleverly guised, such as The 4-Hour Workweek describes. And appeal it does -- how could it not? Gaining big money while doing (almost) nothing is so enticing, so seducing that it triggers the same mental area as it does when participating in bubbles, lotteries, casino games and pyramid schemes.

The author of The 4-Hour Workweek is obviously a gifted person -- and well aware of this fact given how he flaunts his accomplishments! -- which is a hurdle, inhibiting mass adoption of what is described in the book. To be system beater like the author is, is a rare gift. The author goes forth to describe how he delegates work to others in such a way that he gets relieved of all toil, except a couple of hours to keep things moving.

The 4-Hour Workweek is a bit more subtle in its negative effects however, when compared to the afore-mentioned economic phenonema, and it is all about added value. What the author works on is a mix of differences in price (the same argument used for outsourcing), his own considerable insights, available talent abroad and a non-transparant market. As opposed to outsourcing, which requires lots of actual work, experience and management to succeed with, the author adds no further value to the process, so builds up no competitive advantage whatsoever.

Let us just fantasize for a moment that Timothy Ferris' approach is broadly adopted. We have all these entrepeneurs, managers and experts whose sole aim is to minimize their working hours as soon as possible. What added value does that person build? What added value does the company build? What added value does society as a whole build? You can delegate your work away as much as you like, but there is always a downside to every upside. In this case, the downside is the loss of skills and experience and henceforth any competitive advantage that may have been wielded. A downside that is felt all the more if well-packaged parasitism becomes the norm. Just ask yourself how easy it could be for the delegatee to run away with your business.

Structural shortcuts to success are only for a few lucky or brave souls, and are by their very nature not intended for the masses. Contrary to popular belief, the best way to achieve your goal is still to identify it, set the parameters and work hard to make it happen. Like Erasmus said, Qui vitat molam, vitat farinam, or He who runs away from the mill runs away from the meal. In short: No pain, no gain.

1 comment:

  1. Opposite the 4-hour work week we have the 10.000-hour rule from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outliers_(book). I'm tempted to say that unless you are exceptionally gifted or born in a good position betting on hard work is the better rule.

    I recall a proverb 'he who can give every problem his undivided attention for 10 minutes can rule the world' (I think this was attributed to the Ancient Chinese in some SF story). This proverb meshes nicely with the theory that productivity for knowledge workers is strongly related to entering a mental state described as the flow (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow_(psychology)).

    One could probably make the case that most knowledge workers spend less then 4 hours a week in the flow, hence in theory by redesigning their work environment they would be equally productive in 4 hours.

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